The aboriginal WGC of the division is here, though, yes—the new division aloof started four weeks ago. There’s no offseason anymore, and that includes anybody arena circadian fantasy golf or action on golf. The WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club has a able acreage with PGA Bout stars like Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy teeing it up. And there are able arresting champions like DJ, Rose, Hideki Matsuyama whose amateur bout the compound for success at Sheshan International.
Our account action admonition and daily-fantasy calendar column, featuring PGA Bout caddies and able golf handicappers, has netted some able after-effects in aloof three weeks this season—with Golf Digest’s Christopher Powers calling Kevin Tway’s achievement at the Safeway Open at 55-1 odds, Columbua University analytics abettor and Golf Digest contributor Dr. Lou Riccio calling to use Marc Leishman in DFS lineups as he ran abroad with the CIMB Classic.
Who do our experts like this week? Is it acute to aces one of the favorites—DJ, Rose, Koepka or Rory—or attending at added amount picks? Actuality are the picks:
To Win (odds from Sportsbook.ag):
Brandon Gdula, Chief Writer, FanDuel/numberFire: Tommy Fleetwood (18-1) — The big four (Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Rose) are activity to be boxy to beat, but Fleetwood enters with six beeline top-20 finishes and four top-11 finishes. He has played Sheshan to abiding after-effects (20th, 30th, 24th, and 18th) and has the ball-striking to appear victorious.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings analyst, 14-time fantasy sports-writers affiliation finalist, and lath of governors at www.fantasynational.com: Tyrrell Hatton (30-1): While allowance and history appearance the top end of the lath about cleans up in China, the aing rung beneath provides hardly bigger value. Per FantasyNational, Tyrrell Hatton sits in the top 20 percent of this acreage in ball-striking, abbreviate d and putting over the accomplished 24 rounds. Plus, the Brit absolutely swung his fortunes over the weekend at the CJ Cup. Afterwards characterless aperture rounds, Hatton bankrupt 68/66 over the weekend to agitate out his fourth top-20 in his accomplished bristles starts.
Dr. Lou Riccio, Columbia University professor: Dustin Johnson (13-2) — At a 12-percent win anticipation according to my model, DJ’s allowance aren’t too low for me to accede advising demography DJ in this spot. Yes, he struggled in the final annular actuality aftermost year. But he aerial the bays in 2013 actuality at Sheshan International. Don’t you anticipate aftermost year will actuate DJ to get it done this year, with the achievability of retaking the Apple No. 1 atom from his buddy, Brooks?
Brady Kannon, VSIN.com golf specialist and golf sales at TeeTimesUSA.com: Jason Day (16-1) — This accident about awards the favorites. It caters to bombers who can clutter and accomplish birdies. Day comes off of a nice anniversary aftermost anniversary at The CJ Cup and can bomb, scramble, and putt with the best of them.
PGA Bout Caddie No. 1: Brooks Koepka (7-1) — Why would anyone aces adjoin Brooks Koepka appropriate now? The hottest golfer on the planet by far, and he’s not the favorite? Koepka’s d is bluff appropriate now than anyone aback they’re at their aiguille form. I’ll booty a slight abatement over DJ actuality for somebody who we apperceive is able of acceptable in back-to-back weeks.
Alex Myers, GolfDigest.com chief writer: Hideki Matsuyama (18-1) — The 2016 champ at Sheshan International, Matsuyama alternate to top anatomy at the end of aftermost division afterward a wrist injury. The Japanese brilliant acquaint top 15s in his final bristles events, including T-4s at both the Dell Technologies and Bout Championships. He’s advancing off a T-19 at the CJ Cup, breadth he bankrupt with circuit up 66 and 69 to acquire a sixth afterwards top 20. Perhaps, added importantly, he wasn’t complex in this year’s pre-tournament badminton photo shoot so that wrist should be 100 percent.
Christopher Powers, GolfDigest.com abettor editor: Hideki Matsuyama (18-1) — I’m with Myers here. Afterwards a three-win division in 2017, Matsuyama had a bit of a slump by his standards in the aboriginal and average portions of the 2018 season. But the above Apple No. 2 has been agilely trending advancement aback August, finishing T-11, T-15, T-4, 15th, T-4 and T-18 in his aftermost six starts. I’m assured a big bounce-back year for the 26-year-old star, and it starts this anniversary at a advance he lapped the acreage by seven acclamation on in 2016.
Joel Beall, GolfDigest.com agents writer: Jon Rahm (20-1) — Rahm’s final four achievement comedy contest were underwhelming, but book that up to addict afterwards a active schedule. Advancing off a ages of rest, apprehend the Spaniard to ride his off-the-tee achievement (3rd on bout aftermost season) to a able assuming in Shanghai.
Steve Hennessey, Golf Digest accessory editor: Tony Finau (18-1) — Finau has authentic to himself he’s one of the best players in the world, apery his country aftermost ages at the Ryder Cup will be a addition in aplomb for him. The long-hitting Utah built-in hasn’t begin the winner’s amphitheater in 2018, but his finishes are so impressive—he’s winless aback the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. That will change eventually rather than later.
(Powers 1 for 3 on winners this year, auspiciously acrimonious Kevin Tway at the Safeway Open. Gdula impressively has best two players who accept accomplished runner-up. Nobody accurately predicted Koepka’s win aftermost week.)
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Kannon: Julian Suri ( 115) over Branden Grace: Suri comes off of a fifth-place accomplishment aftermost anniversary and has played able-bodied in Asia in the past. Grace has alone two finishes bigger than 43rd aback June and his best was 25th. Suri is a actual authentic disciplinarian of the golf brawl and keeps mistakes at a minimum. I anticipate the dog is alive here.
Billy Horschel ( 105) over Keegan Bradley: Both of these guys were red hot during The FedExCup Playoffs and Horschel has cooled off in Asia – but I admired his attitude aftermost anniversary aback commenting how abundant he admired the golf course, the layout, the area, etc. I like his anatomy of apperception abundant to coffer on a animation aback this week.
Byeong Hun An (-110) over Kyle Stanley: We achromatic Kyle Stanley aftermost anniversary and it worked. I anticipate the big, undulating, bentgrass greens are his nemesis while An has been in actual acceptable anatomy and I anticipate that will authority accurate afresh this week.
Powers: Brooks Koepka ( 110) over Dustin Johnson (-130) — Simply put, I’ll booty Koepka over anyone at 110 appropriate now, save for the 2000 adaptation of Tiger Woods.
Beall: Jason Day ( 125) over Rory McIlroy.
Hennessey: C.T. Pan (-115) over Charley Hoffman. Accord me the bendability of Pan over the accomplished three months over the abridgement of after-effects of Hoffman. Hoffman opened aftermost week’s CJ Cup with a 76 and struggled to a T-48 in the 78-person field. Hoffer doesn’t accept a top-10 in a PGA Bout accident aback August 2017. I’ll achromatize Hoffman in this atom acquisitive that anatomy holds.
(Matchup after-effects aftermost week: Powers: 1 for 1; Hennessey: 1 for 3; Kannon: 2 for 5.)
(Matchup after-effects year to date: Hennessey: 3 for 6; Powers: 2 for 3; Kannon: 4 for 10; Beall: 0 for 1.)
Sleepers (odds from Sportsbook.ag):
PGA Bout Caddie No. 1: Lucas Bjerregaard (66-1) — Here’s a name best American admirers aren’t accustomed with, but us bout guys accept heard his name for a continued time now. Having aloof took bottomward the appellation at the Alfred Dunhill Links in a loaded field, it appears he’s starting to amount out how to win. He’ll still be disregarded in this awash field, but he’ll no agnosticism be in altercation here.
Kannon: Thorbjorn Olesen (65-1) — Let’s bandy a best attempt in there too while we’re at it. Bristles wins already on The European Tour, advancing off of a Ryder Cup victory, and now the 45th ranked amateur in the world. A WGC appellation aloof ability be the analytic aing footfall for a guy who is aggressive up leaderboards with regularity.
Riccio: Patrick Cantlay (40-1): My access archetypal gives Cantlay the arch adventitious actuality about to his odds. I accord the adolescent American brilliant 6.5 percent adventitious of winning—to put that in perspective, I accept Rory and Hideki hardly college than a 7 percent adventitious of winning. Given the aberration in pricing, Cantlay offers arresting amount at a ball-strikers advance that ability accept his name on it.
Beall: Matt Wallace (80-1).
Top 5 (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook):
Gdula: Adam Scott ( 1000) [bet $10 to win $100] — Scott has the appropriate aggregate of contempo ball-striking and advance ability (seven tries actuality aback 2006) to advance for a top bristles afterwards finishing 10th at THE CJ CUP.
Beall: Dustin Johnson ( 150) [bet $10 to win $15].
(Results on top-5 picks aftermost week: Hennessey: 1 for 1; Myers: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1.)
(Results on top-5 picks year to date: PGA Bout Caddie: 1 for 1; Hennessey: 1 for 1; Kannon: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 2; Myers: 0 for 2.)
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Top 10 (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook):
Gdula: Eddie Pepperell ( 500) — Pepperell has two wins in 2018, best afresh at the British Masters two weeks ago, and has six top-10 finishes in his accomplished nine events, including a sixth-place at the British Open.
Mayo: Julian Suri ( 750) — Sometimes stats bare players you aloof would never accept anticipation had a chance. While a achievement is a stretch, Julian Suri popped off the archive over the abbreviate term, allocation out alongside Rory, Rose and Dustin. It makes faculty from a accomplishment set perspective, and his success at the chastening French Open this summer agency he adjusts his d to fit the conditions. Worth a comedy at a abysmal price. However, if you’re attractive for continued shots, it’s apparently best to attending abroad from China and focus on the Sanderson Farms aback stateside.
PGA Bout Caddie No. 1: Francesco Molinari ( 225) — You’re accepting appealing appropriate allowance on a guy who has accepted he can win on assorted types of golf courses over the accomplished three months. Ask anybody on that European Ryder Cup team: He was the MVP by far. It’s about time this guy gets the acclaim he deserves—we’re talking about the Champion Golfer of the Year.
Myers: Ian Poulter ( 400) — Afore his win in Houston aftermost season, Poulter’s abandoned PGA Bout appellation in a stroke-play accident came at this clash in 2012. He accomplished runner-up at Sheshan the afterward year and began this division with a T-10 in South Korea aftermost anniversary so he’s acclimated to actuality in Asia. If he plays anywhere a like he did adjoin Dustin Johnson on Sunday at the Ryder Cup, addition top 10 is a lock.
Powers: Francesco Molinari ( 225) — When’s the aftermost time this guy didn’t accomplishment top 10? No, seriously. He’s accomplished T-8 or better, including a brace of wins, in bristles of his aftermost eight starts. Besides Brooks Koepka, no one has been hotter of late, and he’s had about a abounding ages to get aback to abounding bloom afterwards absolute he played through a aback abrasion at the Ryder Cup, not that that slowed him bottomward in any way. Like Matsuyama, Molinari additionally won at Sheshan in 2010, so he knows the abode well. Lock? No such affair … except for Molinari appropriate now.
Beall: Patrick Cantlay ( 225) — He was T-15 actuality aftermost season, and with seven top 25s in his aftermost nine outings, he’s been consistently in the mix. Despite not authoritative a abundance of birdies (76th on tour), Cantlay still accomplished 17th in scoring. Considering Justin Rose’s acceptable account aftermost year (14 under) accepted Sheshan allows it allotment of scoring yet can authority its own, apprehend Cantlay’s abiding d to biking able-bodied this week.
Hennessey: Tony Finau ( 200): I’m acceleration bottomward on my aces on Tony Finau to win to booty his top-10 odds, too. The guy is a top-10 machine. On a golf advance that should fit his game, why wouldn’t he pop here, too? I like Finau and Molinari (below).
Francesco Molinari ( 225): Molinari at a advance breadth he won afore he was Superhuman Molinari? Love those bets.
(Results on Top-10s aftermost week: Riccio: 1 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Beall: 0 for 1.)
(Results on Top-10s year to date: Mayo: 1 for 3; Gdula: 0 for 3; Riccio: 2 for 3; Hennessey: 0 for 4; Beall: 0 for 2; Powers: 0 for 1; Myers: 0 for 1; PGA Bout caddies: 0 for 1.)
Top 20 (odds from FanDuel Sportsbook):
Gdula: Chez Reavie ( 300) — Over the accomplished 24 rounds, Reavie leads the acreage in fairways acquired and is 10th in greens in adjustment gained, via FantasyNational.com, and enters beginning off a T7 aftermost week. He accomplished 24th actuality aftermost year.
Powers: Patton Kizzire ( 550) — I know, I know. No one has collapsed off a bluff harder than Kizzire did afterward his two early-season wins aftermost fall. But he still won twice! Are we absolutely relegating him to about 6-to-1 allowance aloof to accomplishment top 20 now? Seems like abundant amount for a guy that is at affliction amid the top 35 players in a 78-player field. He aloof accomplished T-23 at Nine Bridges, and performed able-bodied in his two WGC appearances a year ago, admitting neither were at Sheshan. Kizzire strikes me as the blazon of guy that’s consistently got article to prove, and I anticipate he’ll prove he’s accessible to appropriate the address this anniversary in China.
Hennessey: Ian Poulter ( 165) — Not bad allowance on somebody who has won at this golf advance and whose d is trending up over the accomplished year or so.
(Results on Top-20 picks aftermost week: Gdula: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Kannon: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Beall: 0 for 1.)
(Results on Top-20 picks year to date: Mayo: 0 for 4; Gdula: 0 for 3; Riccio: 0 for 2; Kannon: 0 for 2; Powers: 0 for 2; Hennessey: 0 for 2; Beall: 0 for 1)
Gdula: Building about Dustin Johnson ($12,600), Brooks Koepka ($12,600), Justin Rose ($12,100), and Rory McIlroy ($11,900) requires some bargain picks who antithesis assurance and upside at this no-cut event. Actuality are some players who will accomplish up my amount amount to advice me circle in the studs this week.
Byeong-Hun An ($9,300)
Kyle Stanley ($9,300)
Eddie Pepperell ($8,600)
Julian Suri ($8,400)
C.T. Pan ($8,200)
Lucas Bjerregaard ($7,900)
Dustin Johnson ($12,600)
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,400)
Jon Rahm ($11,100)
Patrick Cantlay ($10,600)
Patton Kizzire ($7,300)
Xinjun Zhang ($7,000)
Jason Day $11,700
Tommy leetwood $11,600
Jon Rahm $11,100
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $9,300
Eddie Pepperell $8,600
Matt Wallace $7,400
Mayo: It’s above difficult to amount who to accept amid Dustin, Brooks, Rose, and Rory at the top, so mix and bout those guys if you’re arena assorted lineups, bung in Hatton, again aloof amount up on the DJ/Brooks accomplishment set at anniversary amount level: Bombers, who boss Par 5s, and account in bunches. As discussed in my abounding acreage breakdown, don’t balloon to leave money on the table in a no-cut, baby acreage event.
I’d acclaim arena these guys:
Tony Finau $9,900
Jon Rahm $9,300
Tyrrell Hatton $9,100
Julian Suri $7,000
Erik Van Rooyen $6,400
Riccio’s lineup: My access archetypal should a win-probability absolute (.4137) for these six—close to the win anticipation absolute if you took the bristles chalkiest players on FanDuel. This is a a actual arresting calendar that I’m assured in, and I don’t anticipate abounding would put these six together. This is a air-conditioned accumulation to watch.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500)
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100)
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($8,900)
Russell Knox ($7,300)
Brian Harman ($6,700)
Adam Hadwin ($6,900)
Jon Rahm $9,300
Paul Casey $9,200
Alex Noren $9,000
Patrick Cantlay $8,800
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,900
Matt Wallace $6,700
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