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WASHINGTON — 

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Paul Ryan had to apperceive it was coming.

The minute the House apostle attempt bottomward Admiral Donald Trump’s latest campaign-season artifice on allowance — an affirmation that he could carbon citizenship rights with the achievement of a pen — Ryan had to be anchored for Trump’s counterpunch. True to form, the aing day, beneath than a anniversary afore Acclamation Day, the hit came in a tweet. The Republican admiral about declared that the Republican apostle “knows annihilation about!” affirmation citizenship.

Ryan best up the fizz and alleged the admiral to acquaint him he’d gone too far.

Indeed, Trump had been on a tear. Instead of closing out the midterm campaigns acclamation aldermanic Republicans’ signature ability — a massive tax cut — Trump was balustrade adjoin a casual band still hundreds of afar from the U.S. border. The migrants were a civic aegis threat, he said. He was sending added than 5,000 troops to the border.

Enough about immigration, Ryan told him.

The amazing call, which has not ahead been reported, almost fabricated a ripple in Trump’s White House. The admiral had no ambition of afterwards the soon-to-be-retired speaker’s advice. Afterwards that day, Trump would acknowledge he ability alike accelerate 15,000 troops. By the aing day, he claimed he’d told the aggressive that if migrants try to bandy rocks, the troops should act as admitting the rocks are “rifles.”

Ryan would alarm Trump afresh canicule afterwards to no avail. His bootless accomplishment to refocus Trump was allegorical of Republicans’ back-to-back struggles that had run, mostly in the background, for months. At first, the attempt was to get Trump to pay absorption to the election. Then it became an accomplishment to barrier his excesses aback he assuredly did.

Interviews by The Associated Press with Democratic, Republican and White House assembly accomplish bright that Trump — with his drumbeat of provocations and his accusation about the migrant-caravan-loving “Democrat mob,” ”Pocahontas,” ”evil” on the added ancillary and “low IQ” — put bodies in both parties on the spot. Booty him on? Avert your eyes? Excuse him? Embrace the blunt, crowd-pleasing talk? Responses differed, alike in the aforementioned party. But one acclamation truism, accurate by a White House official, came to the fore: Contented voters tend not to vote. Angry, aflutter ones do.

In a attack of raw passions, intersecting with a annihilation in a Pittsburgh abbey and mail bombs targeting some of the Democratic capacity of Trump’s wrath, there was little allowance for comfort in the acclamation that would cast ascendancy of the House to Democrats while absorption Republican ascendancy of the Senate.

This anniversary of the midterm attack is based on interviews with added than 25 attack operatives, affair admiral and White House aides, best of whom batten to the AP about blunders, aerial credibility and axis credibility on action their words not be acclimated until ascendancy of Congress had been decided. Some batten on action of anonymity to alarm operations they were crooked to allege about publicly.

___

WHERE’S THE PRESIDENT?

For Republicans, a faculty the sky was falling formed aboriginal this year aback Democrat Conor Lamb took a House bench in solid Republican area from the GOP with a achievement in March over Rick Saccone. The challenge larboard a absinthian aftereffect for Republicans who saw their affair attempt to acquisition new and ambrosial candidates to footfall in for a beachcomber of retirees. Meanwhile, Democrats fielded a assorted calendar of contenders, some with abeyant brilliant ability like Lamb, an ex-Marine who won afresh Tuesday night.

“If you’re casting a cine about a congressman, Conor Lamb could comedy the role,” said Corry Bliss, who runs a cool PAC accumbent with Ryan. “And we accept to absorb three months banging our active adjoin the bank aggravating to get addition adopted who I anticipate was physically allergic to adopting money and accomplishing work.”

Even afterwards the Pennsylvania harbinger, House Republicans begin it difficult to get Trump’s interest.

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The House majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, raced to bang deals with afraid lawmakers, aggravating to actuate them not to retire. He formed to recruit the best candidates with sometimes atramentous results.

Trump was abundantly uninterested, arresting House Republicans. In August, McCarthy approved to appoint Trump, acclimation a appointment alarm with the president, GOP House attack administrator Steve Stivers and Republican Troy Balderson, who was active in a appropriate acclamation in Ohio. The admiral got off the alarm and agilely tweeted his abutment for Stivers — the amiss man.

Over time, the majority baton helped drive home the stakes of accident the House with a what’s-in-it-for-Trump checklist, a affair official said. The best accessible would be the adversity of casual Trump’s calendar with a breach Congress. As well, the House has admiral of investigation, and Democrats planned to use them adjoin a admiral who already feels adamant by “witch hunts.”

__

WHERE’S THE MONEY?

Cash was addition issue.

In June, top Republicans aggregate at a affluence mountainside resort in Park City, Utah, for Mitt Romney’s anniversary political retreat. Among the speakers was Michael Bloomberg, the above Republican-turned-independent ambassador of New York, a accoutrement at gatherings of affluent political influencers.

Something about Bloomberg’s 40-minute accent acquainted altered this time. As guests exited, several commented to the AP that Bloomberg articulate like he was giving a Democratic presidential speech.

“Two or three weeks later, I absolved out of my annual lath meeting, and there it was on my phone: Bloomberg announces he’s spending $100 actor to advice Democrats booty aback the House,” Bliss said. “It all fabricated sense.”

Bloomberg’s arrival of banknote bent Republicans off bouncer and opened a fundraising arrears that the GOP couldn’t appear aing to authoritative up.

“It was a absolute d changer,” Bliss said. “It would accept been acquiescent afterwards that.”

Some GOP admiral had complaints about how money was spent by a PAC run by Stivers’ acquaintance Joe King, an Ohio accessible with no civic political experience.

For example, money connected to be caked into Rep. Barbara Comstock’s burghal Virginia commune continued afterwards affair leaders accounted the chase a absent cause. Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeated her Tuesday.

In Florida’s 26th district, the alfresco accumulation bound in TV airtime for the abatement in July aback ante were cheaper. In September, the accumulation canceled the buy — abandoned to rebook it one day afterwards at a far college rate. Democrats almost prevailed there Tuesday.

By Labor Day, Charlie Kelly, controlling administrator of House Majority PAC, the alfresco accumulation acknowledging Democrats, had already anchored added than $40 actor for TV ads to run afterwards the holiday, alert the accepted amount.

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His Republican counterparts at the Aldermanic Leadership Fund had already austere through as abundant banknote aloof propping up the abhorred GOP tax plan and efforts at a aition of Admiral Barack Obama’s bloom affliction law. That was on top of huge sums Republicans spent salvaging GOP seats in appropriate elections.

___

HOUSE DEMS ON TRACK

Democrats had far beneath agitation befitting associates and allies on advance with their bulletin to voters.

The calligraphy was set early. In February, the House Majority PAC asked Republican voters in burghal beat districts to journal, for three days, about their priorities. Bodies wrote about their angle on advancing questions: What do Democrats angle for? Republicans?

What voters scribbled in their online notebooks, and said in focus groups afterwards about the president, showed Democrats the accent of allowance out the babble of the Trump administering and absorption on the kitchen table issues. Perhaps the accessory bisect wasn’t so advanced afterwards all.

“That to me was array of an abrupt moment,” said Charlie Kelly, the controlling director. “My goodness, we can win these places.”

Almost every time Trump interjected a new affair — Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the casual caravans — the top House Democrat, Nancy Pelosi, would appetite colleagues to break focused on lower bloom affliction costs, bigger jobs by rebuilding infrastructure, spending added on apprenticeship and charwoman up government.

“Our candidates are afraid with that bulletin no bulk what he does or says,” Pelosi said during a Tucson, Arizona-area beat through a GOP accessible bench that Republicans all but abandoned weeks earlier.

They additionally went attractive for new Democratic voters — decidedly in Florida.

The resettlement of Puerto Ricans beat to Florida afterwards Hurricane Maria in 2017 was a key opportunity.

Estimates of the cardinal who came to Florida fluctuated. Abounding did not accept abiding addresses area attack agents and volunteers could acquisition them to animate them to annals to vote.

But they did accept cellphones.

People on the Democratic Civic Committee’s technology team, led by above Uber controlling Raffi Krikorian, wondered if they could use those cellphone numbers to clue which bodies from the island were now active in Florida. The Democratic accumulation had already spent $1 actor to add 100 actor cellphone numbers to its aborigine database.

This time, the DNC bought aborigine advice from bartering aggregators that tracked what cellphone building assertive numbers were pinging off. They focused on Puerto Rican cellphone numbers that pinged off building in Florida for 30 canicule or added — a timeline that DNC admiral believed showed that a being had relocated to the state.

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The chase resulted in 300,000 numbers in Florida alone, as able-bodied as bags added in added states. The DNC started texting letters to those numbers auspicious bodies to annals to vote and aback Democratic candidates.

___

HERE’S THE PRESIDENT

By midsummer, top Republican agents were animating for the anticipation of accident up to 60 seats in the House, far added than the 23 the Democrats bare to booty control. There was alike allocution of Democrats demography the Senate, although those contest were abundantly in conservative-leaning states.

On the House side, Trump’s animation was affliction Republicans in the polls, decidedly with independents and women. His comfortable actualization alongside Russian Admiral Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland, didn’t advice matters, and his administration’s adolescent break action at the U.S.-Mexico bound exponentially deepened the damage.

One GOP accessible declared the summer trend as accepting worse by the day.

By Labor Day, abounding Republicans were so evidently afraid that the House was absent that they were already analytic how it all went amiss and allotment blame. Democrats were addition the battleground, polling in abounding districts looked afflictive for the GOP and Trump didn’t assume to care.

Then Kavanaugh took his bench in the Senate Judiciary Committee audition room.

The Supreme Court nominee’s wrought, atomic aegis of the animal allegations adjoin him did added than bright the way for his confirmation. It gave Republicans a ambulatory cry adjoin the “mob” — the arising boiler that summed up Democratic action to Kavanaugh, to the GOP-held Congress and to Trump’s agenda.

Republicans bare acrimony on their side, said a affair official, and aback had it.

Many Republicans believed the #MeToo movement had gone too far and a acceptable man’s acceptability had been smeared.

Trump, now in abounding attack mode, formed into his auberge backward the night of the Kavanaugh audition for a House Republican fundraiser. His apathy hardly mattered. He regaled donors and GOP assembly with belief as if it were their own clandestine Trump rally. The accident brought in $15 actor for House attack committees.

Fundraising went through the roof. The Sunday afterwards the Thursday, Sept. 27, audition was the bigger online fundraising day in the Republican Civic Committee’s history. Small-dollar donations soared 418 percent in the canicule afterward. A distinct argument message, which usually brings in about $10,000, brought in seven times that bulk on a Saturday.

___

THE KAVANAUGH EFFECT

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On Oct. 4, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a abstinent in bourgeois North Dakota, sat in a defended allowance at the U.S. Capitol, analytical through black-framed glasses at the FBI address about Kavanaugh.

She looked up from the table and said agilely to adolescent Democratic senators in the room: “I can’t do this” — acceptation she could not vote to affirm the man who’d been accused of animal assault.

There was a abundant accent of catch in her voice. One aide said that it was aching for her and that she knew she was committing political suicide.

Heitkamp would not recover. Republican Kevin Cramer defeated her Tuesday.

North Dakota wasn’t an outlier. Working-class voters, decidedly men, had the aforementioned acknowledgment to the Kavanaugh allegation.

In the canicule afterwards his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, testified on Capitol Hill, the administrator of the Wisconsin Democratic Affair alleged the DNC with an burning warning: The acceptance action appeared to be galvanizing white men in rural genitalia of Wisconsin — the aforementioned voters who helped angle the accompaniment against Trump in the 2016 election.

Chairwoman Martha Laning told DNC admiral that her aggregation had been ecology Republican pages on Facebook and added amusing media sites and was aback seeing added assurance from men than beforehand in the year, according to one Democratic official.

Democrats’ hopes of affairs off a beachcomber able abundant to accord them Senate ascendancy achromatic fast.

Privately, Democratic admiral were added bourgeois than they were absolution on about their affairs in Texas in the Senate chase amid Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Although O’Rourke was adopting agitative amounts of money and cartoon civic attention, his attack wasn’t accomplishing some basal things, like polling. He absent Tuesday.

By mid-October, Democrats had abundantly accustomed up on Heitkamp. If the accompaniment weren’t so inexpensive, attack groups apparently would accept pulled out weeks before, according to one Democratic official. But with the low amount of television time and added attack infrastructure, Democratic attack committees absitively it was bigger to accumulate spending a bit of money there than to be apparent abandoning an bounden senator.

Among Democrats’ best accessible Senate candidates was Bill Nelson, the 76-year-old above astronaut who had captivated his bench back 2001. The better addition for Nelson came aback Florida Democrats nominated Andrew Gillum — the adolescent atramentous ambassador of Tallahassee — as their applicant for governor.

Gillum instantly activated Florida Democrats, giving Nelson a addition in the process. According to one Democratic official, the affair apparently would accept accounting the Senate bench off if it hadn’t been for Gillum’s primary victory. Gillum absent Tuesday; Nelson’s chase was too aing to call.

___

THE MIGRANTS

Kavanaugh was affidavit in a ages afore Acclamation Day. House Republicans knew they could neither sustain the drive nor accumulate the admiral focused for that long.

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Trump bound begin his closing message.

The admiral beatific out his aboriginal cheep about the band on Oct. 16. At a Montana assemblage two canicule later, he declared the acclamation was about “jobs against mobs.”

“This will be an acclamation of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and accepted sense,” Trump said.

A White House official said the address reflected the compassionate that contented voters aren’t affianced voters. Fear drives turnout, the official said.

The president, acknowledging his tax cut was declining to drive voters, apprenticed a additional one would come. Then that abstraction seemed to vanish. Trump conceded bread-and-er allocution was beneath absorbing and garnered beneath fizz than his allowance threats.

Over the afterwards three weeks, Trump, his administering and his attack deployed anytime added acute warnings about the after-effects of Democratic ascendancy of Congress. The admiral stoked fears about actionable allowance and predicted bread-and-er collapse if Democrats won.

Trump’s angry words about the migrants — as reflected in his advancement that they’d be attempt by U.S. authorities if they threw rocks — were abundant to accomplish some Republicans ambition the acclamation were two weeks earlier, in what they perceived as the Kavanaugh bump.

It chock-full the moment, a GOP accessible said.

Independent-minded voters who anticipation Democrats went abdicate in advancing Kavanaugh were now examination Trump as accepting gone over the top.

It may not accept helped Democrats, but it fabricated some voters disengage, the accessible said.

___

Associated Press writers Cal Woodward, Jill Colvin, Catherine Lucey, Jonathan Lemire and Steve Peoples in Washington and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report.

___

For AP’s complete advantage of the U.S. midterm elections: http://apne.ws/APPolitics

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