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Kris Osborn

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Security, Europe

NATO vs. Russia in a War for the Baltic States: Who Wins?

Russia has acutely postured itself in acknowledgment to NATO as admitting it can counter-balance or avert the alliance, about able assay of Russia’s accepted aggressive reveals it is not acceptable to affectation a absolute claiming to NATO in a prolonged, absolute aggressive engagement.

The accepted NATO force anatomy in Eastern Europe would be clumsy to bear a Russian aggression into adjoining Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, a new anticipate catchbasin abstraction has concluded.

After administering an all-embracing alternation of wargames wherein “red” (Russian) and “blue” (NATO) armament affianced in a advanced ambit of war scenarios over the Baltic states, a Rand Corporation abstraction alleged “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank” bent that a acknowledged NATO aegis of the arena would crave a abundant above air-ground force than what is currently deployed.

In particular, the abstraction calls for a NATO action agnate to the Algid War era’s “AirLand Battle” article from the 1980s.  During this time, the U.S. Army stationed at atomic several hundred thousand troops in Europe as a action to avert a abeyant Russian invasion. Admiral with U.S. Army Europe acquaint Beforehand Warrior that there are currenty 30,000 U.S. Army soldiers in Europe. 

(This aboriginal appeared in Beforehand Warrior here back in 2016 and is actuality reposted due to clairvoyant interest.)

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The Rand abstraction maintains that, after a bridle the admeasurement of at atomic seven brigades, fires and air abutment attention Eastern Europe, that Russia algid beat the Baltic states as bound as in 60 hours.

“As currently postured, NATO cannot auspiciously avert the area of its best apparent members. Beyond assorted amateur application a advanced ambit of able participants in and out of compatible arena both sides, the longest it has taken Russian armament to adeptness the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours. Such a accelerated defeat would leave NATO with a bound cardinal of options,” the abstraction writes.“AirLand” Action was a cardinal warfighting abstraction followed by U.S. and affiliated armament during the Algid War which, amid added things, relied aloft absolute allocation amid a ample action automatic arena force and beforehand aircraft overhead.  As allotment of the approach, air attacks would seek to abate adversary assets acknowledging advanced band adversary troops by bombing accumulation elements in the rear. As allotment of the air-ground integration, ample accepted arena armament could afresh added calmly beforehand through dedicated adversary advanced band areas.

A accelerated advance on the Baltic arena would leave NATO with few adorable options, including a massive chancy counterattack, aggressive a nuclear weapons advantage or artlessly acceptance the Russian to addendum the countries.

One of the bound options cited in the abstraction could accommodate demography huge amounts of time to activate and arrange a massive argue force which would acceptable aftereffect in a drawn-out, baleful battle. Another achievability would be to abuse a nuclear option, a book which seems absurd if not absolutely unrealistic in ablaze of the U.S. action to abatement nuclear arsenals and abash the anticipation of application nuclear weapons, the abstraction finds.  

A third and final option, the address mentions, would artlessly be to accept the Baltic states and asperse the accord into a abundant added acute Algid War posture. Such an advantage would artlessly not be accustomed by abounding of the association of these states and would, after question, leave the NATO accord attenuated if not partially fractured.

The abstraction spells out absolutely what its wargames bent would be all-important as a credible, able deterrent.

“Gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three abundant armored brigades—adequately accurate by airpower, land-based fires, and added enablers on the arena and accessible to action at the access of hostilities—could answer to anticipate the accelerated beat of the Baltic states,” the abstraction writes.

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During the assorted scenarios explored for the wargame, its participants assured that NATO attrition would be beat bound in the absence of a above automatic arresting force posture.

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“The absence of short-range air defenses in the U.S. units, and the basal defenses in the added NATO units, meant that abounding of these attacks encountered attrition alone from NATO action air patrols, which were afflicted by arduous numbers. The aftereffect was abundant losses to several Blue (NATO) battalions and the disruption of the counterattack,” the abstraction states.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia could be acceptable Russian targets because all three countries are in aing adjacency to Russia and spent abounding years as allotment of the above Soviet Union

“Also like Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia are home to ample indigenous Russian populations that accept been at best anyhow chip into the two countries’ post-independence political and amusing mainstreams and that accord Russia a self-justification for meddling in Estonian and Latvian affairs,” the abstraction explains.

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While the Pentagon’s European Reassurance Action calls for added funds, armament and force rotations through Europe in advancing years, it is cryptic whether their ultimate troop increases will appear anywhere a what Rand recommends.  Pentagon admiral would not, at the moment, brainstorm as to whether thoughts and considerations were actuality accustomed to adopting armament levels above what is alleged for in the initiative.

At the aforementioned time, the Pentagon’s $3.4 Billion ERI appeal does alarm for an added force attendance in Europe as able-bodied as “fires,” “pre-positioned stocks” and “headquarters” abutment for NATO forces.

Officials with U.S. Army Europe acquaint Beforehand Warrior that added adherence contest with NATO allies in Europe are additionally on the horizon, and that added manpower could additionally be on the way. 

“We are currently planning the approaching rotations of units through Europe. The heel-to-toe abstraction will access how generally they’re actuality for the Armored BCT mission, but it won’t access how abounding are actuality at already — that will abide aloof one at a time. We currently accept some aerodynamics assets on a circling actuality but affairs aren’t yet close on what that looks like activity forward. We’ve requested added allotment for Civic Guard and Assets manpower which may appear in the anatomy of abounding or fractional units or alike individuals,” Cathy Brown Vandermaarel, backer for U.S. Army Europe told Beforehand Warrior in a statement. 

Increased adherence contest would be advised to added avert Russia by assuming allies cooperation forth with an adeptness to bound arrange and move automatic armament beyond the European continent, Vandermaarel added. 

The Rand abstraction maintains that, while expensive, abacus brigades would be a aces accomplishment for NATO.

Buying three aboriginal ABCTs and abacus them to the U.S. Army would not be inexpensive—the up-front costs for all the accessories for the brigades and associated artillery, air defense, and added enabling units runs on the adjustment of $13 billion. However, abundant of that gear—especially the big-ticket Abrams tanks and Bradley angry vehicles—already exists,” the abstraction says.  

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The Russian Military

Russia’s aggressive assignment and addition of the Crimean peninsula accept abounding Pentagon analysts acceptable apprehensive about and assessing the about action of the above Algid War aggressive giant’s forces, platforms and weaponry.

Russia has acutely postured itself in acknowledgment to NATO as admitting it can counter-balance or avert the alliance, about able assay of Russia’s accepted aggressive reveals it is not acceptable to affectation a absolute claiming to NATO in a prolonged, absolute aggressive engagement.

Russia’s bread-and-er pressures accept not slowed the countries’ charge to accelerated aggressive addition and the access of aegis budgets, admitting the actuality that the country’s aggressive is a atom of what it was during the acme of the Algid War in the 1980s.

While the above Algid War giant’s territories and alien best borders are sizably beneath than they were in the 1980s, Russia’s accepted land, air and sea armament are aggravating to aggrandize quickly, alteration into the higher-tech advice age and steadily accompany aing bearing platforms.

Russia’s accepted and nuclear armory is a baby allotment of what it was during the Algid War, about the country is advancing a new chic of air-independent submarines, a T-50 stealth fighter jet, next-generation missiles and high-tech accessory for alone arena soldiers.

During the Algid War, the Russian aegis account amounted to about bisected of the country’s all-embracing expenditures, analysts accept said.

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Now, the countries’ aggressive spending draws aloft a abate allotment of its civic expenditure. However, admitting these huge allotment differences compared to the 1980s, the Russian aegis account is aggressive again. From 2006 to 2009, the Russian aegis account jumped from $25 billion up to $50 billion according to Business Insider – and the 2013 aegis account is listed abroad at $90 billion.

Overall, the Russian accepted aggressive during the Algid War – in agreement of arduous admeasurement – was acceptable bristles times what it is today.

Overall, the Russian aggressive had almost 766,000 alive advanced band cadre in 2013 and as abounding as 2.4 actor assets forces, according to globalfirepower.com. During the Algid War, the Russian Army had as abounding as three to four actor members.

By the aforementioned 2013 assessment, the Russian aggressive is listed as accepting added than 3,000 aircraft and 973 helicopters. On the ground, Globalfirepower.com says Russia has 15-thousand tanks, 27,000 armored angry cartage and about 6,000 self-propelled accoutrements for artillery. While the Russian aggressive may not accept a accepted force the arduous admeasurement of its Algid War force, they accept fabricated efforts to both avant-garde and advance portions of their automatic ammunition and platforms. The Russian T-72 tank, for example, has been upgraded abundant times back its antecedent architecture in the 1970s.

Analysts accept additionally said that the Russian aggressive fabricated huge amounts of accepted and nuclear weapons in the 80s, alignment from rockets and cruise missiles to actual able air defenses.

 In fact, the Russian congenital S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft air defenses, if maintained and modernized, are said to be decidedly effective, experts accept said.

 In the air, the Russian accept maintained their 1980s congenital Su-27 fighter jets, which accept been postured throughout the arena by the Russian military.

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Often compared to the U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Eagle fighter, the Su-27 is a maneuverable accompanying agent fighter congenital in the 1980s and primarily configured for air ahead missions.

While abounding experts advance that NATO’s size, fire-power, air supremacy and technology would ultimately abound in a abundant assurance with Russia, that does not necessarily abate the Rand study’s allegation that NATO would be put in a abhorrent asperity should Russia access the Baltic states. 

This adventure originally appeared in Scout Warrior. 

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