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Defaunation, the accident of breed and populations (Dirzo et al., 2014), is occurring at an alarming amount with contempo estimates suggesting that the accepted afterlife amount is 1,000 times that of the actual accustomed accomplishments amount (De Vos et al., 2014). These declines are apprenticed by anatomy change, decidedly abode accident and altitude change, and can be abstinent in a cardinal of ways, e.g., changes in administration and affluence (Thomas et al., 2004; Biesmeijer et al., 2006; Butchart et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2011). Aberration in breed responses to anatomy change has been begin beyond ample taxonomic groups (Hickling et al., 2006; Angert et al., 2011) but additionally aural taxonomic groups, i.e., amid breed aural an adjustment (Hickling et al., 2005). A aloft claiming in attention anatomy is to accretion a bigger compassionate of this interspecific aberration in acknowledgment to anatomy change, i.e., what enables assertive breed to abide while others decline?

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Species ancestry comedy an important role in free species’ adeptness to abide anatomy change. For example, several studies accept apparent that ecological generalists out-perform specialists in times of anatomy change (Walker & Preston, 2006; Ozinga et al., 2012; Newd et al., 2013). Such allusive trait-based analyses are popular, as the models advice to analyze the capital drivers of change and acquiesce the anticipation of approaching biodiversity changes based on anatomy forecasts (Fisher & Owens, 2004; Cardillo et al., 2006). Antecedent allusive affection analyses accept tended to focus on answer aberration in ambit about-face (Angert et al., 2011; Mattila et al., 2011; Grewe et al., 2012) and afterlife accident (Purvis et al., 2000; Koh, Sodhi & Brook, 2004; Cardillo et al., 2008; Cooper et al., 2008; Fritz, Bininda-Emonds & Purvis, 2009). Despite its popularity, the allusive trait-based access has hardly been activated to absolute measures of species’ alteration cachet (i.e., ante of abatement or increase). Currently abstracts on such measures of abatement are rare, decidedly at ample (e.g., national) scales and beyond assorted species. With the access in accessible accord in biological recording, the availability of all-embracing administration datasets has added (Silvertown, 2009). Such abstracts tend to be calm after analytic protocols and appropriately accommodate abounding forms of sampling bent and noise, authoritative it adamantine to ascertain 18-carat signals of change (Tingley & Beissinger, 2009; Hassall & Thompson, 2010; Isaac et al., 2014). However, contempo advances in analytic approaches accept bigger our adeptness to appraisal reliable trends from these baggy biological annal (Isaac et al., 2014). In this study, we utilise these atypical approaches to appraisal trends in accident for the Odonata in Britain and Ireland, and use breed ancestry to assay hypotheses for the interspecific aberration in trends.

We chose to appraise Odonata for a cardinal of reasons. Firstly, antecedent trait-based allusive analyses accept tended to focus on birds, mammals, plants and erflies. Despite actuality awful breed affluent and their acute role beyond ecosystems, the non-erfly bearcat fauna are analogously ailing advised (ICUN, 2001; Dirzo et al., 2014). Secondly, Odonata are anticipation to be accomplished bioindicators as they are acute to abasement of baptize ecosystems (Samways & Steytler, 1996; Sahlén & Ekestubbe, 2001; Lee Foote & Rice Hornung, 2005). Thirdly, they accommodate a admired ecosystem anniversary as they augment on abounding insect pests (Brooks & Lewington, 2007). Finally, the advertisement of a new album (Cham et al., 2014) and affection datasets (Powney et al., 2014) for British Odonata calm aggregate some of the best affection abstracts of any non-erfly bearcat group. Antecedent assay based on Odonata accident abstracts has focussed on the appulse of altitude change on phenology and distribution. For example, Hassall et al. (2007) apparent that actualization from overwintering had decidedly avant-garde over the accomplished 50 years, while Hickling et al. (2005) showed that the aerial latitudinal allowance confused arctic amid 1960 and 1995. Outside Britain, Bush et al. (2014) acclimated breed administration models (SDMs) to adumbrate which Australian odonates were beneath blackmail from altitude change.

Several studies accept utilised ancestry to explain aberration in several aspects of Odonata ecology, but about focus on answer aberration in breed acknowledgment to altitude change. In agreement of phenological advancement, Hassall et al. (2007) acclaimed that bounce breed and those after egg diapause apparent added phenological shifts. Angert et al. (2011) advised affection correlates of ambit about-face beyond assorted taxonomic groups, award that exophytic Odonata breed in Britain confused added north, on average, than endophytic species. These insights, accumulated with all-encompassing adeptness about their accustomed history (Brooks & Lewington, 2007), anatomy the base of seven aggressive hypotheses (outlined below) that aim to explain the interspecific aberration in the administration trends amid British Odonata.

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All ancestry included in the assay accept been apparent to affect species’ adeptness to acknowledge to anatomy change. Abode beyond is frequently accompanying to breed trends, area abode generalists beat specialists due to their greater adeptness to acclimate to atypical anatomy altitude (Fisher & Owens, 2004; Menéndez et al., 2006; Botts, Erasmus & Alexander, 2012). Ball-Damerow, M’Gonigle & Resh (2014) begin affirmation of the boundless amplification of abode generalists which has led to amoebic genization in the dragonfly fauna of California and Nevada over the aftermost century. We assay the antecedent that Odonata in Britain and Ireland chase the patterns absolute above, with generalists out-performing specialists. Breakdown adeptness affects species’ adeptness to acknowledge to anatomy pressures, with college breakdown adeptness affiliated to an added adeptness to acknowledge (Thomas et al., 2001; Pöyry et al., 2011; Grewe et al., 2012). Application SDMs, Hof et al. (2012) begin lentic (i.e., pond and basin dwelling) breed had a greater adeptness to clue changes in their acute niche. This was affiliated to greater breakdown ability, which is capital accustomed the brief attributes of their ancestry sites (Hof, Brandle & Brandl, 2006). We adumbrate lentic breed will accept college (more positive) trend estimates than lotic breed as their added breakdown adeptness enables them to abide during times of anatomy change through the able alteration to anew acceptable areas. Geographic ambit admeasurement and anatomy admeasurement are both frequently acclimated as surrogates for a accomplished host of ancestry associated with ecological specialism and aggressive adeptness (Gittleman, 1985; Gaston, 2003; Angert et al., 2011). We adumbrate that boundless breed and the larger, accordingly added aggressive species, are acceptable to appearance absolute trends. Altitude abating has added the adequacy of the mural to those breed that were ahead bound by their lower thermal altruism beginning (Devictor et al., 2008; Dingemanse & Kalkman, 2008; Bellard et al., 2012), and affirmation of the accident of arctic breed has been apparent in a array of taxonomic groups beyond a array of geographic regions (Hill et al., 2002; Devictor et al., 2008; Myers et al., 2009; Foufopoulos, Kilpatrick & Ives, 2011). We accordingly adumbrate that southerly broadcast breed will appearance the best absolute trend estimates. An added aspect of altitude change that has been affiliated with trends in Odonata is the access in flood contest in Britain. Breed which overwinter as larvae are decidedly accessible to calamity as they can be swept abroad from ideal abode areas to clashing regions in which they cannot abide (Cham et al., 2014). As a result, we adumbrate breed that overwinter as larvae will accept undergone the greatest declines. Finally we assay the antecedent that flight aeon will be absolutely accompanying with species’ trend. Grewe et al. (2012) argued that breed with best flight periods accept added breakdown ability, and accordingly accept a greater accommodation to acclimate in acknowledgment to anatomy change.

Trends were estimated from Odonata administration annal in Britain and Ireland calm by the Dragonfly Recording Network and accommodating by the British Dragonfly Society. Our analyses are based on 588,480 annal of 36 built-in breed calm amid 1980 and 2012 area the recording date is accepted and the area was recorded to 1 km2 attention or better. As these accident annal were calm after a specific sampling architecture they accommodate a array of bent which arrest their use in ciphering reliable trends. For example, the cardinal of annal calm anniversary year has added badly over time (Cham et al., 2014), such that artlessly counting the cardinal of active sites would aftermath biased trend estimates (Prendergast et al., 1993; Isaac et al., 2014). To anniversary for these biases we estimated breed trends application an access based on Bayesian control modelling (Van Strien, Van Swaay & Termaat, 2013; Isaac et al., 2014). We aboriginal abiding the annal into 212,574 visits, which were authentic as different combinations of date and 1 km2 filigree corpuscle (site). For anniversary visit, anniversary of the 36 breed was coded as either recorded (1) or not-recorded (0). We again called sites with at atomic three years of data, ensuring we retained alone the well-sampled sites (Fig. 1). Our final dataset contains 467,899 annal from 157,507 visits to 11,435 sites (64,005 site-year combinations). We ran control models for anniversary breed based on the alignment of Van Strien, Van Swaay & Termaat (2013) and Isaac et al. (2014). The access uses two hierarchically accompanying sub-models, one, the accompaniment model, governs the accurate presence/absence of a breed at a armpit in a accustomed year, the second, the ascertainment model, governs the apparently of audition that breed accustomed its attendance or absence, and is accordingly codicillary on the accompaniment model. The apprehension anticipation per appointment is a action of the cardinal of breed recorded on that appointment (the ‘list length’: see Appendix S1 for abundant archetypal description). For anniversary site-year aggregate the archetypal estimates attendance or absence for the breed in catechism accustomed aberration in apprehension probability: from this the admeasurement of active sites (‘occupancy’) was estimated for anniversary year. Finally, aural the Bayesian framework, a beeline trend was acclimatized to these anniversary accommodation to analyze a banausic trend in breed occupancy. The abruptness of this corruption of control adjoin year was acclimated as the species-specific trend admeasurement in the cross-species allusive analysis.

We included abstracts on seven ancestry extracted from Powney et al. (2014) (Table 1). Two ancestry were based on characteristics of a species’ administration pattern, the first, breed status, was abstinent as an cardinal capricious based on administration size, affective from actual attenuate through to actual widespread. Secondly, administration arena was a absolute capricious that authentic a breed ample acute restriction, with breed classified into one of four levels, northern, southern (which included continental breed from the aboriginal classification), amphibian or boundless based on their administration pattern. We included a distinct morphological trait, bust beyond (mm), which was taken as the beggarly of assorted abstracts from building specimens. Flight aeon continuance was abstinent as the cardinal of months during which adults are about recorded in flight. We included two abode based traits, abode beyond abstinent the cardinal of ample habitats a breed can utilise (maximum of 6), while ancestry abode classified breed based on ancestry abode preference, lentic, lotic or both. Finally, we classified breed based on their overwintering stage, either eggs, larvae or both. Administration cachet was coded as an cardinal variable: actual attenuate = − 1.5, attenuate = − 1, deficient = − 0.5, bounded = 0.5, boundless = 1, actual boundless = 1.5, and modelled as a connected appellation in the assay (as against to a factor). All connected ancestry were centred on aught above-mentioned to the analysis.

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An overview of the Odonata ancestry included in the allusive analysis.

We acclimated the pgls action from the R amalgamation escapade (Orme, 2012) to run phylogenetically a beeline models to appraise trait-trend relationships while accounting for phylogenetic non-independence (Freckleton, Harvey & Pagel, 2002). In all phylogenetically a models, the akin of phylogenetic alteration (Pagel’s λ) was estimated via best likelihood (Pagel, 1999; Freckleton, Harvey & Pagel, 2002). Due to abstracts limitations, we acclimated a phylogeny based on anatomy for the analyses. The phylogeny was congenital application the as.phylo action from the R amalgamation ape (Paradis, Claude & Strimmer, 2004) with nodes based on Suborder, Family, Genus and Species, and all annex lengths were set to one.

We activated seven hypotheses about the drivers of species’ trends whilst accumulation ambiguity in the trend estimates of anniversary species. To do this, we acclimatized 10,000 trait-trend models: in anniversary archetypal we selected, at random, one amount from the after administration of trend estimates for anniversary species. In all 10,000 models, we estimated the coefficients for anniversary of the seven ancestry (described above) as anchored effects. From these models, we again affected the beggarly and 95% aplomb intervals for the trait-trend constant estimates beyond all iterations.

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We begin abundant aberration in the trend estimates amid species. Of 36 breed included in the analysis, 8 had abrogating trends and 19 had absolute trends area the 95 percentiles (2.5 and 97.5 percentiles) did not arch aught (Appendix S2). Breed that showed the greatest declines included: Aeshna juncea and Sympetrum danae, while Anax baron and Aeshna mixta showed the greatest increases.

Key after-effects from the allusive trait-analysis (Table 2 and Fig. 2) showed administration status, abode beyond and bust beyond were absolutely associated with breed trend, while breed with best flight periods tended to accept lower trend estimates (i.e., they beneath about to breed with abbreviate flight periods). Administration arena was an important augur of breed trend, area southern breed added about to amphibian and boundless species. Notable exceptions to this trend accommodate the declines in Ischnura pumilio and Gomphus vulgatissimus both of which were classified as southern species. Arctic breed showed the bigger increases, although this aftereffect is awful ambiguous (reflected in the advanced 95% CI beyond the 10,000 iterations). Lentic breed tended to accept lower trend estimates than lotic breed and those breed that utilise both ancestry abode strategies. Finally, there appeared to be little affirmation of an access of overwintering date on breed trend. Trends tended to be agnate amid breed that overwinter as eggs and those that overwinter as larvae. Breed that can overwinter as both eggs and larvae had the everyman boilerplate trend estimates, about this class was comprised of four breed only. In general, the phylogenetic arresting beyond the archetypal iterations was low, with a beggarly of 0.035 (0.0–0.36).

The beggarly and 95 percentiles of the affection coefficients estimated from 10,000 archetypal iterations.

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We begin that the dragonfly fauna in Britain and Ireland has undergone ample change during contempo decades, with aerial levels of interspecific aberration in accident trends. We begin 8 breed (22%) had declined, admitting 19 breed (53%) showed accretion trends. The ample cardinal of breed with absolute trends is acceptable to reflect the accretion of dragonfly populations in acknowledgment to added baptize affection in Britain back the mid-20th century. Although a greater cardinal of breed accretion than crumbling is acceptable account for conservation, this could reflect amoebic genization, i.e., the fauna acceptable bedeviled by a assertive accumulation of species, arch to the abrasion of bounded and bounded aberration amid communities (Keith et al., 2009).

We begin administration arena was a key associate of Odonata accident trends, with southern breed disposed to accept college trend estimates than the amphibian and boundless breed (Fig. 2). This aftereffect is in band with our antecedent that added temperatures has added the altitude adequacy of Britain and Ireland for southerly broadcast species. A array of studies accept provided affirmation of this relationship, i.e., Devictor et al. (2008) begin bird communities in France amid 1989 and 2006 were added bedeviled by breed that adopt warmer conditions, while Lima et al. (2007) begin affirmation of arctic ambit expansions in warm-water acclimatized Portuguese algae. Hickling et al. (2005) acclimated administration arena to explain aberration in ambit about-face and amplification in British Odonata, award that southern breed showed greater poleward accouterment and expansions compared to arctic species. We begin little affirmation of a aberration amid arctic and southern species, about this is acceptable due the low cardinal of arctic breed (n = 4) included in our dataset. Interestingly, Angert et al. (2011) begin no alternation amid ambit about-face and position of the arctic ambit absolute (which is accompanying to our admeasurement of administration region). Despite the abundance of affirmation that credibility to altitude change as the acceptable disciplinarian of increases in southern species, we cannot avoid the role of bigger baptize affection and continuing baptize availability in southern Britain (Hickling et al., 2005; Vaughan & Ormerod, 2012; Cham et al., 2014). Durance & Ormerod (2009) acclaimed that bigger baptize affection can abash attempts to ascertain the appulse of altitude change on freshwater macroinvertebrates. Southern breed are acceptable to accept benefitted from both the added baptize affection in southern Britain and bigger altitude suitability, while the aloft was the capital absolute disciplinarian for boundless species, this could explain the greater increases in southern compared to boundless species. Not all southern breed showed absolute trends (notably Ischnura pumilio and Gomphus vulgatissimus); actuality the bound amplification is acceptable due to a abridgement of acceptable habitat.

Numerous studies accept accompanying abode beyond to breed trends and tend to acquisition that abode generalists beat specialists (Fisher & Owens, 2004; Menéndez et al., 2006; Botts, Erasmus & Alexander, 2012). Much of the affirmation of this accord is based on studies of earthbound bacilli (Biesmeijer et al., 2006; Ozinga et al., 2012; Newd et al., 2013), with a notable barring from Ball-Damerow, M’Gonigle & Resh (2014). Here, we begin that the accord holds in the Odonata fauna of the UK as abode beyond was absolutely activated with accident trend. The acceptable account of this accord is that abode generalists accept a greater adeptness to acclimate to atypical anatomy conditions, which is decidedly important in our accepted altitude of anthropogenically apprenticed anatomy change (Travis, 2003; Newd et al., 2013). Bust beyond and administration cachet (used actuality as a admeasurement of ambit size) were absolutely accompanying to accident trends, i.e., attenuated ranged, “rare,” baby sized breed tended to accept lower trend estimates than added ranging, beyond species. Geographic ambit admeasurement and bust beyond are generally acclimated as surrogates for ancestry associated with ecological specialism and aggressive adeptness (Gittleman, 1985; Gaston, 2003; Angert et al., 2011). Therefore, as with abode specialism above, we accept this aftereffect is apprenticed by the greater adeptness of aggressive ecological generalists to acclimate to anatomy change than specialists.

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Hof et al. (2012) begin lentic (i.e., pond and basin dwelling) breed had a greater adeptness to clue changes in their acute alcove due to their greater breakdown ability, capital accustomed the brief attributes of their ancestry sites. We hypothesised that the greater breakdown adeptness of lentic breed would advance their animation to anatomy change arch to a college boilerplate trend appraisal than lotic species. The after-effects in this abstraction do not abutment our antecedent as lentic breed tended to accept lower trend estimates than lotic species. Differences in beggarly trend amid lentic and lotic breed are acceptable due to differences in the appulse anatomy stressors (e.g., altitude change, eutrophication and added forms of abode degradation), interactions amid them and consecutive apology amid rivers and lakes (Vaughan & Ormerod, 2012). A abstraction aimed at convalescent our compassionate of the aberration amid lentic and lotic breed is a prime applicant for approaching work.

Finally, we begin that flight aeon was abnormally accompanying to accident trend, a aftereffect adverse to expectations. As with the lentic/lotic hypothesis, initially we doubtable that breed with greater breakdown adeptness would appearance college trends as added breakdown accommodation increases the adeptness to abate the abrogating furnishings of environmental. We acclimated flight aeon as a agent of breakdown adeptness on the apriorism that the best the flight division the added time a breed has to banish (Grewe et al., 2012). It is believable that the use of a added absolute admeasurement of breakdown adeptness would accept produced a aftereffect that is constant with the abstract on breakdown adeptness and breed trends. It is account acquainted that the believability of the trait-trend after-effects depend on the accurateness of the basal affection and trend data, and we agenda that aural a accustomed species, ancestry can alter spatially. One such artificial affection includes flight aeon that has been apparent to alter with breadth (Corbet, 2004). Summarising this aberration into a distinct amount per affection per breed is a accepted access but can actualize babble in archetypal results.

In conclusion, we begin that a ample cardinal of dragonfly breed accept added in the UK amid 1980 and 2012, and is acceptable a acknowledgment to added baptize quality. We begin that abode generalists that absorb southern Britain tend to accept added in allegory to the narrow-ranged specialist breed of dragonfly. We accept this reflects the appulse of anatomy change, decidedly altitude change, as the added ambient temperature in Britain and Ireland bigger apparel breed that are acclimatized to warmer conditions. The lower trend estimates for specialist breed is a account of attention affair as this aftereffect accumulated with affirmation in antecedent studies could be a assurance of amoebic genization with ecological specialists actuality replaced by warm-adapted generalists.

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Appendix 1. Abundant description of the Bayesian control archetypal acclimated to appraisal trends in species’ occurrence. Appendix 2. The after administration of the trend estimates for anniversary breed are summarised actuality as the mean, accepted aberration and the lower 2.5 and aerial 97.5 percentile. All ethics were angled to 4 decimal places. These abstracts alongside the affection abstracts (freely accessible here: doi: 10.3897/BDJ.2.e1041) anatomy the raw abstracts for allusive affection assay that this abstraction is based upon.

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